1. Johan Santana - New York Mets
His declining strikeout rate is worrisome, but the NL is far inferior to the AL and he hasn't exactly shown any other signs of regression.
2. C.C. Sabathia - New York Yankees
Switch to the AL East will hurt his K rate and CG's, but his record and winning percentage stand to get better.
3. Tim Lincecum - San Francisco Giants
Pitches in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game and should miss bats consistently. Injury concern is overblown. Just because he is 5'11'' doesn't mean he is going to get hurt. Kid is ripped.
4. Brandon Webb - Arizona Diamondbacks
His declining strikeout rate is worrisome, but the NL is far inferior to the AL and he hasn't exactly shown any other signs of regression.
2. C.C. Sabathia - New York Yankees
Switch to the AL East will hurt his K rate and CG's, but his record and winning percentage stand to get better.
3. Tim Lincecum - San Francisco Giants
Pitches in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game and should miss bats consistently. Injury concern is overblown. Just because he is 5'11'' doesn't mean he is going to get hurt. Kid is ripped.
4. Brandon Webb - Arizona Diamondbacks
Five straight seasons of 200 innings plus may lead you to believe that he is a breakdown candidate. While that's possible, the consistency is too hard to ignore and he'll pitch 10-12 games against three of the worst lineups in the sport.
5. Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays
I wouldn't of ranked him here a year ago, but the dominance that he displayed this past season was scary. The Jays offense should be better as well.
6. Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies
If you were starting a baseball team, you'd have to consider drafting him as the first pitcher given his age, left handedness, and overall makeup. How does he post stats like that pitching in a silo?
7. Jake Peavy - San Diego Padres
I must say, I am not exactly confident about this ranking, but he is Jake Peavy. His team is awful offensively and should lose a lot of games, but he should strikeout enough people to warrant a ranking like this. I mean, it's Jake freakin Peavy.
8. Ervin Santana - Los Angelas Angels of Anaheim
One of the most underrated pitchers in the game. Misses bats, is on a very good team, and is just coming into his own. He's getting better and don't be suprised if he is Top 5 material next year.
9. Chad Billingsley - Los Angelas Dodgers
The broken leg should be healed by the start of the season. Three things to know: He pitches in the NL West, he strikes people out and he has one of the best curveballs you've ever seen.
10. Jon Lester - Boston Red Sox
This ranking is based on an improvement in his K rate, which should occur with the addition of his cutter. Red Sox may struggle to score runs this year if Ortiz, Drew and Lowell battle injuries and Youkilis/Pedroia regress....which has to happen, right?
#'s 11-20 and sleepers, coming tomorrow
6. Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies
If you were starting a baseball team, you'd have to consider drafting him as the first pitcher given his age, left handedness, and overall makeup. How does he post stats like that pitching in a silo?
7. Jake Peavy - San Diego Padres
I must say, I am not exactly confident about this ranking, but he is Jake Peavy. His team is awful offensively and should lose a lot of games, but he should strikeout enough people to warrant a ranking like this. I mean, it's Jake freakin Peavy.
8. Ervin Santana - Los Angelas Angels of Anaheim
One of the most underrated pitchers in the game. Misses bats, is on a very good team, and is just coming into his own. He's getting better and don't be suprised if he is Top 5 material next year.
9. Chad Billingsley - Los Angelas Dodgers
The broken leg should be healed by the start of the season. Three things to know: He pitches in the NL West, he strikes people out and he has one of the best curveballs you've ever seen.
10. Jon Lester - Boston Red Sox
This ranking is based on an improvement in his K rate, which should occur with the addition of his cutter. Red Sox may struggle to score runs this year if Ortiz, Drew and Lowell battle injuries and Youkilis/Pedroia regress....which has to happen, right?
#'s 11-20 and sleepers, coming tomorrow
Peavy is Peavy, but the Padres are the Padres. I would slot Lester in before him even if the Sox have some injury concerns. No way CC ends up the 2nd pitcher at the end of this year, I'm calling at least 2 stints on the DL. I do like Johan as the #1, should have had at least 3 more wins last year. And hey, how about Haren?
ReplyDeleteHaren just missed the cut. Lester hasn't shown enough yet. Pitching well in a small sample size like the playoffs is great, but he'll have to prove his Top 10 value throughout the season. CC could very well get hurt and land on the DL, but I wasn't going to make that assumption. I think #2 is fair.
ReplyDelete7-2, 4-0, 16-6. Over the last 3 years (given he only made 26 starts in the first 2)Lester is 27-8. His ERA has gotten better every year and he plays for one of the best teams in baseball. And that is not including the post season. Peavy had 10 wins last year (and 11 losses), 166 Ks (only 14 more than Lester) and 174 innings (36 fewer than Lester). Thats enough for me.
ReplyDeletePitcher wins has to be one of the most overrated stats to use in baseball when evaluating a players worth. Peavy threw 172 innings last year, his K/9 was 8.60. Lester's K/9 was 6.50 last year. I ranked him 10 because that K/9 can get better with the improved command of his cutter. But that isn't enough to overcome the K/9 and the difference in lineups that they will be facing.
ReplyDeleteAccording to CBS, Peavy threw 173.7 innings actually. And yes, Ks are what you are looking for, but at the expense of wins? I think not. Lester finished as the 10th best pitcher in my league last year. Peavy? Not even in the top FOURTY. So I think I'll take a few less Ks if it means 6 more wins (10 points apiece).
ReplyDeletePeavy missed a month because of elbow problems. That is why he only landed on 173 innings. Something to think about, for sure. He is an injury risk, but I'd be suprised if most drafts had Peavy after Lester.
ReplyDeleteI would be surprised if most drafts were right.
ReplyDeleteVery true.
ReplyDelete